Projection of the daily travel of an ageing population: The Paris and Montreal case, 1975-2020

Projection of the daily travel of an ageing population: The Paris and Montreal case, 1975-2020

[SHS:SOCIO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Sociology

POPULATION

MOBILITE (PERS)

SOCIOLOGIE

ZONE URBAINE

PERSONNE AGEE

Ageing of the population, urban sprawl and car dependency will change travel patterns. The main objective of this paper is to give elements for a better understanding of the impact of changing demographics on the long term evolution of daily mobility using demographic-based models to forecast, for the elderly population, car-ownership, trip frequency, distance traveled, average trip distance. A second objective is to measure the impact of the long term tendencies observed on the appearance of new needs of travel demand such as a rapid increase of demand-responsive transport. The paper compares two agglomerations, both in a strong ageing process, but in quite different sociocultural contexts: a large European metropolis: Paris, and a medium sized north-american city: Montreal. Many common conclusions derived from the two different cases studies reinforce the possibility of generalizing the conclusions to other situations.

Dejoux, Virginie

Bussiere, Yves

Madre, Jean-Loup

Armoogum, Jimmy

Transport Reviews

ISSN:0144-1647

2010

ENG

article in peer-reviewed journal

http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00559492

DOI: 10.1080/01441640903166724

http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/55/94/92/PDF/Projection_of_the_daily_travel_of_an_ageing_population.pdf