Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

[SHS:ENVIR] Humanities and Social Sciences/Environmental studies

[SHS:GEO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography

[SDU:STU:CL] Sciences of the Universe/Earth Sciences/Climatology

[SDE:MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes

Climate change

Climate analogues

Climate relocation

Urban Areas

Uncertainty

We describe a method to represent the results of climate simulation models with analogues. An analogue to a city A is a city B whose climate today represents A's simulated future climate. Climates were characterized and compared non-parametrically, using the 30-years distribution of three indicators: Aridity Index, Heating Degree Days and Cooling<br />Degree Days. Analogy was evaluated statistically with the two-samples Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, generalized to 3 dimensions. We looked at the climate of 12 European cities at the end of the century under an A2 climate change scenario. We used two datasets produced with high-resolution<br />regional climate simulation models from the Hadley Center and Meteo France. Climate analogues were generally found southward of present locations, a clear warming trend even if much model and scenario uncertainty remains. Climate analogues provide an intuitive way to show the possible effects of climate change on urban areas, offering a holistic approach to think about how cities adapt to different climates. Evidence of its communication value comes from the reuse of our maps in teaching and in several European mass-media.

Kopf, Sebastian

Ha-Duong, Minh

Hallegatte, Stéphane

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

ISSN:1561-8633

2008

ENG

article in peer-reviewed journal

http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00260190

http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/27/97/71/PDF/Kopf.ea-20080515-UsingMapsOfCityAnaloguesToDisplayAndInterpretClimateChange.pdf